The alarmist article by the Associated Press that Azerbaijan Defense Minister Hints at War (Nov 27, 2007) is somewhat surprising.

Image: Azeri scientist Kerim Kerimov’s artistic depiction of the possibly upcoming war between Armenia and Azerbaijan from his own website

The long-standing dispute over the Armenian-controlled territory of Nagorno-Karabakh could spark a new war if it remains unresolved, Azerbaijan’s defense minister said Tuesday.

“As long as Azerbaijani territory is occupied by Armenia, the chance of war is close to 100 percent,” Safar Abiyev said during a meeting in Kazakhstan of defense chiefs from ex-Soviet republics.

His startlingly worded remark was a reminder that Azerbaijan has not ruled out use of force in recapturing Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding areas.

Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding territory that is also part of Azerbaijan have been controlled by Armenian and ethnic Armenian forces since a shaky 1994 cease-fire ended one of the bloodiest conflicts that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union. The six-year war killed 30,000 people and drove more than 1 million from their homes, including many of the region’s ethnic Azeris.

Azerbaijan and Armenia remain locked in a dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh despite more than a decade of coaxing from international mediators led by the United States, Russia and France to resolve the region’s status.

Gunfire breaks out regularly along the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia and in the regions near Nagorno-Karabakh.

Armenian Defense Minister Mikhail Arutyunian said he sees no alternative to a peaceful settlement, the RIA-Novosti news agency reported.

Surprising in a sense that anyone would be surprised from this conventional militant statement by official Azerbaijan.